Inverted H&S?

After the huge move last week, I now see a possible inverted H&S on the DJ. This could have validity as it has formed over a nearly 8 mth period (from the valleys of the left to the right shoulder).

Should it hold above the neckline in the next week or two (or worst case is a retracement of 38.2% from low of Jul13 to current peak to about 8600), then I could be looking at a possible longer term upside target of around 11245 (61.8% retracement up of the entire Oct07 to Mar09 bear move) to 11330 (inverted H&S target).

Strong Rebound from 13 Jul 09

Right after my observation posted on 13 July, both DJ and Light Crude made quite a spectacular "recovery".

Bullish Divergence in DJ

Saw this on 13 July 09, before US markets open. Looks like a bounce in DJ is imminent with the bullish divergences. Want to see if it can propel it above the H&S neckline especially now that the weekly stochastics are at oversold and possibly turning up again. Could mean a negation of the recent H&S breakdown if that happens?

Many have been calling for a retest of March's low (or even new lows) recently. I have been skeptical though as I have been cautiously bullish (esp on STI) since 4 May 09 when it went above the horizontal resistence at 1950 (for STI). Nevertheless, the bottoming of a bear market and the start of the next bull is always a treacherous period and I am mindful of a possible wave 2 correction (with a higher low than March's low) happening before the uptrend could resume.

Oil at short term support

Crude Oil hitting support around the 58.15 (38.2% retracement of the Feb-Jun upmove) and the 59.40 (double top target) region. Due for a bounce next. Any bounce in oil will boost DJ since a few of the latter's components are the oil majors.

"Experts" are predicting that oil will pull back to an eventual low of around $45 before resuming it's uptrend (ie any bounce now is still a sucker's rally). Crude's weekly stochastics are now only down to about 40.. not quite oversold yet though I'm skeptical it'll pull back to as low as $45 but I could be wrong! So let's see..